week 8

Louie, Curren, and Harich (1, 7, 15)

1. Describe the "knew it all along affect," and how it relates to the opening scenario described by the authors and teh the Washington Public Power Supply System(WPPSS). 

Research indicates that hindsight distortion can influence post outcome perceptions. This bias occurs when outcomes seem more inevitable in hindsight than they did in foresight. This is referred to as the “knew-it-all-along-affect,” hindsight bias occurs when individuals feel as if they would have predicted the outcome to dance better than they actually did, for better than they actually would have had they’ve been asked to make a forecast. Even when individuals are specifically asked to have more information. 

In a lawsuit against WPPSS, investors claimed that they should have known that the demand for power would change such that there would be no longer a need for large-scale high-technology projects. WPPSS, however, claimed throughout the process that the default was unfortunate but not highly foreseeable.  Based off the rules of the “knew-it-all-along-affect” it would make sense in terms of legal strategies for WPPSS to state that the default was not foreseeable and for investors to claim it was.  Yet, because of mechanisms that influence hindsight reasoning, it is also possible that each team to some degree truly believed their position

7. Describe what you would have been asked to do, had you been a participant in the experiment. 

I would use a marketing strategy computer simulation game called “MARK-STRAT.”  Using this game I would be put on a team with other students for my class and assigned to one of five business firms with the goal of strengthening the business’s marketing position.  I would meet with members of my firm regularly to make a series of managerial decisions.  At the start of the games, each participant was asked to review the first set of decisions made by those in the target firm that I was assigned to evaluate. I would then be asked to make predictions about the target firm’s upcoming market share.  I would be competing with other teams and my firm’s performance would be dependent on the decisions that were made as a team. One week after making predictions, and after the game administrator had run the market simulation, I would be presented individually with the decision information that I reviewed earlier. I would also receive updates regarding the target firm’s actual performance.  After being reminded that I had made prediction a week earlier, I would then make post-dictions regarding the target firm’s market share.

15. Describe the avenues for future research suggested by the author. 

Although the researchers hope that there work provides insight into hindsight bias for team decisions, they believe it would be worthwhile to pursue search outside of the classroom setting to see whether the same pattern of hindsight bias emerges. In addition, this study is limited in that it measures hindsight bias the competitive task that was need you to participants. Future research can explore the relationship between expertise in personally relevant team settings. The Long-Term Capital Management example, which showed that achievement-oriented individuals who have obtained past successes may be more susceptible to hindsight effects, is an area of research also suggested by the authors.   All-in-all, Future research can test the applicability of, as well as build on, studying a variety of team decision-making settings

week 9

Vosburg (1, 6, 12) pg. 253 1. The results of several studies are presented as evidence for a facilitatory effect of positive mood on creative problem-solving. Briefly describe this evidence. 

The empirical literature on mood and creative problem-solving emphasizes the facilitating effect of positive mood. Most of these studies employed three types of tasks: insert problems, categorization tasks, and remote associates. For example, Isen, Daubman, and Nowicki (1987) found that positive mood had a facilitative effect on creative problem-solving by facilitating the process of finding relatedness and diverse stimuli. Greene and Noice (1988) replicated the results for the insight task in the study with adolescents as participants. In a categorization task, adolescence in the positive condition generated more words and a greater number of atypical words with respect to a given category than did adolescence in other experimental conditions.  

6. Describe what you would have been asked to do, had you been a participant in the experiment.
I would be asked to do divergent-thinking tasks in a group as part of a larger experiment. I’d be given many tasks and questionnaires presented as a way to conceal the purpose of the experiment. I would be asked to complete the Russell Adjective Check List, but be instructed to wait to begin the problem-solving tasks together as a group. I would be given only five minutes on each problem-solving task. Each task would be given at the same time. Once it was completed, it would never be return to. After completion of all the questionnaires, I would be thanked for my efforts and given an extra lecture on a topic of interest as a reward for my participation. 

12. The authors cite two separate problems with the assessment of negative moods, one methodological and one conceptual. Describe each of these problems. 

Two sets of problems arise when measuring negative mood.   One is methodological in that participants did not seem to check many negative terms on this particular adjective checklist perhaps because only a few students maybe in a bad mood and if they are the checklist used maybe too measure mild variations of negative because they allow only checking in particular items if no items are checked, no information about a particular real estate is available, leading many per distance without measurements. The second problem with measuring negative mood is a negative mood getting that manifested into ways: One is sad or one is discontent/dissatisfied.  While positive mood is relatively straightforward and unidimensional, negative mood may be multidimensional and more complex.  So positive mood and negative mood cannot be compared equally as opposites.

 

week 7

McGlone and Tofighbakhsh (3, 4, 8)

3. Describe the author's two major hypothesis. 1. People would misattribute the processing fluency produced by an aphorism's rhyming form to heightened conviction about the statement's accuracy, relative to a semantically equivalent non-rhyming version of the aphorism. 2. The prediction that this misattribution would be attenuate when people were prompted to attribute processing fluency to its actual source. Specifically, the researchers expected that people advised to distinguish aphorisms' poetic qualities from their propositional content would be less prone to exhibit the "rhyme as reason" effect.

4. Describe what you would be asked to do as a participant in the study. For the study I would be randomly assigned to to one of the aphorism lists and an instruction condition. I would read each aphorism carefully and then rate the degree to which I perceived the aphorism as "an accurate description of human behavior," on a scale from 1 to 9.  Once I completed the accuracy ratings, I would be asked to answer the yes or no question: "In your opinion, do aphorisms that rhyme describe human behavior more accurately than those that do not rhyme." Lastly, after responding to the question, I would be debriefed about the true purpose of the experiment. 
8. Describe the pattern of results obtained (a) in the warning condition and (b) in the control condition. Did the results support the authors' original hypothesis? Can people separate rhyme from reason?

Analysis of the accuracy readings indicated that, overall, there were no reliable difference in mean rating between extant rhyming and non-rhyming aphorisms or original and modified versions. However, participants in the control-instructions condition generated slightly higher ratings overall than those in the warning condition. As was predicted, participants who were not cautioned to distinguish aphorisms semantic content from their poetic qualities asigned higher accuracy ratings to the original writing aphorisms than their modified counterparts.

In contrast, participants in the warning condition exhibited a markedly different pattern of accuracy rating. The original writing aphorisms were assigned reliable lower accuracy ratings in this condition than in the control condition.

As a result, bringing the distinction between an aphorism’s poetic qualities and semantic content to the participants’ attention had the desired effect of preventing their tendency to conflate fluency with perceived accuracy.  However, the researchers found no evidence that this tendency in the control condition stemmed from the explicit belief that rhyming aphorisms are more accurate than nonrhyming ones. For example, when asked if they held such as leave all participants in both conditions responded “no.”

week 6

Fox, Tree (1,6, 10)
1. One purpose for the function of uhm and uhs is that they serve as signals for upcoming delay. As the book describes, when people are thinking of answers to factual questions they; say um when they delay before answering if going to be long and uh when the delay is going to be short.  This can affect comprehension because uhm and uh are indicators of an upcoming short or long delay and may prompt the listener to change their focus.

6. For Experiment 1, I would listen to each list, 10 per list, I would mark on an answer sheet whether I thought each trial had been edited. I would be asked to "spot the splice" where the material may have been digitally altered.

For Experiment 2, I would listen and follow along to a transcript (up to 6x). During the recording, I would mark on the transcript where I felt the recording was digitally manipulated.

10. In the study they found that uhs increased the speed at which listeners are able to recognize words in upcoming speech, whereas ums were found to hae no effect on the listeners' speed of recognition. The pattern of results showed that uhms and uhs do not inhibit on-line processing and, even more surprising that uhs aid processing.

Foertsh & Gernsbacher (2,6,12)
2. In some situations, singular they has been okay to use and some grammar books argue that singular they seems more natural than generic he in certain situations. and most now allow writers to use they as a pronoun for two limited classes of singular antecedents; indefinite pronouns. 

6. For experiment 1, I would read 72 three-clause sentences at my own reading pace and then indicate (using true or false) whether I agree or disagree with the opinion expressed in each sentence. Experiment 2 was similar accept that my response would be to a "yes/no" question instead of "true/false").

12. 
(a) A zebra should never hide in the water, even if they have learned how to swim.
(b) A male zebra should never hide in the water, if they have learned how to swim.